Week 16 Preview
It’s Packers Week, and the balance of power in the NFC North is on the line. The Bears and Packers meet for the 211th time in one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries. In their most recent matchup, Green Bay edged Chicago 28–21 at Lambeau Field just two weeks ago.
Now, the stakes are even higher.
A true heavyweight showdown headlines Week 16 as the Bears return home for a Saturday night battle. Sitting atop the NFC North and holding the conference’s No. 2 seed, Chicago looks to defend its turf against its oldest rival with everything at stake.
This is your Week 16 preview. 🐻⬇️
When/Where:
📅 Saturday, December 20th
⏰7:20
📍Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
💰 Odds:
Bears +1.5 +100
Pack -1.5 -120
O/U 46.5
☁️🌑The Weather:
Kickoff: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28
The Playoff Picture:
According to the NFL, the Bears can clinch a playoff berth on Sunday with two scenarios:
1) Beat Green Bay Saturday & Lions lose or tie against Steelers on Sunday at Ford Field
2) Bears tie Green Bay Saturday & Lions lose to Steelers on Sunday
🐻Our Bears:
Chicago sits atop the NFC North and has a chance to create real separation from Green Bay, which limps into the short week dealing with major injuries on both sides of the ball.
The Bears have won six of their last seven games and are peaking at the right time. They dominated a weak Cleveland Browns team 31–3 last week, overwhelming Shedeur Sanders and the offense from start to finish.
Chicago’s offense has proven week after week that it can put points on the board. The Bears rank fifth in the NFL in total offense (347.0 yards per game) and ninth in scoring (26.1 points per game). That production now faces a very different Packers defense than the one Chicago saw earlier in the season. And with injuries continuing to mount for Green Bay, the Bears’ offense may find things a bit easier to operate.
With Micah Parsons out, Green Bay’s pass rush took a noticeable step back in Sunday’s loss to Denver. That should give Caleb Williams more time in the pocket, allowing the passing game to settle in and creating opportunities for calculated shots downfield.
But to me, the identity is clear: run first. Dominate the trenches. Impose your will. Dictate the tempo and make Green Bay react. Chicago’s duo- and inside-zone-heavy rushing attack should be well-positioned to exploit those absences.
In this rivalry, finesse comes second, physical control comes first. If Chicago wins up front, everything else will follow.
The Bears already flashed their offensive ceiling in the second half of the Week 14 matchup at Lambeau Field. Chicago piled up 244 total yards, scored 18 points, and reached the red zone on all four second-half possessions.
Defensively, the Chicago Bears are coming off an outstanding performance against the lowly Cleveland Browns. They filled up the stat sheet last week, recording five sacks, eight tackles for loss, 15 quarterback hits, three interceptions, and six pass breakups.
Adding to that momentum, the Bears are expected to get Tremaine Edmunds back, which should provide an immediate boost to the unit. His return strengthens a defense that already showed promise just two weeks ago, when it held Green Bay somewhat in check during the second half while allowing the offense to get them back in the game. 🐻⬇️
*Side note: As we all know, we may be without Burden this week. That would be unfortunate, as he’s really been turning a corner. Over the last two weeks, Luther Burden has 10 receptions for 151 yards. Hopefully he can practice Thursday and suit up Saturday.
🧀 The Cheeseheads:
The Packers, meanwhile, appeared to run out of air against the Broncos in Denver. Green Bay coughed up a 23–14 third-quarter lead and fell 34–26, wasting a game they seemed to have firmly in hand after scoring on their first five drives. Momentum vanished, and the cracks started to show.
Now, those cracks are turning into real problems. Injuries are piling up on both sides of the ball, with Evan Williams, Zach Tom, and Christian Watson all in jeopardy, and Tucker Kraft already lost for the season. Since the last meeting with Chicago two weeks ago, Green Bay’s depth has been stretched thin.
That’s dangerous territory in this rivalry, shorthanded against a Bears team gaining confidence and physicality. In Bears–Packers matchups, weaknesses don’t stay hidden for long, and Chicago will be more than happy to expose them.
In Week 14, Green Bay won at home in spite of its rush defense. This season, the Packers are just 3-2-1 when allowing more than 100 rushing yards, compared to 6-2 when they keep opponents in check on the ground. That disparity looms large heading into Chicago.
Josh Jacobs was seen limping through the locker room with a stimulation brace around his injured knee, but he has made it clear he plans to play anyway.
“For me, it’s harder to watch games than it is to play hurt.”
He backed that up last week in Denver. Even banged up, Jacobs ripped off 12 carries for 73 yards and two touchdowns, including a season-long 40-yard score. You wouldn’t have known he was injured, and that’s exactly why the Bears must make stopping him a priority. He has that dawg in him.
Jordan Love, meanwhile, went 24-of-40 for 276 yards, with one touchdown, two interceptions, and three sacks, before going 0-for-4 on the final drive to seal Green Bay’s fate in Denver. When pressure mounted, the offense stalled, and Chicago will be eager to test that again.
Defensively, Parsons is out, and the potential absence of Evan Williams is a major concern for Green Bay. His ability to play the run from depth and clean up at the second level was a huge reason the Packers avoided getting gashed in the first meeting. With injuries mounting and adding Parsons to this mix, it may be simply be too much for Green Bay to overcome. Losing those presences changes the math.
Green Bay still has stars: Walker, McKinney, Gary, and there are still 53 men on that roster who will show up ready to fight. In this rivalry, injuries, toughness, and momentum matter more than names.
On Saturday night in Chicago, the Bears know exactly what’s coming. And the Packers will give them everything they’ve got because that’s the only way this rivalry is ever played.
🔑Key Matchups:
The Bears Defensive front vs a banged up GB Oline:
The importance of the Chicago Bears getting home and making Jordan Love uncomfortable couldn’t have been clearer than what Denver did to him in the second half on Sunday. Once the Broncos started applying consistent pressure, Love unraveled, timing broke down, decisions sped up, and the Packers’ offense stalled.
Chicago has to follow that blueprint. Get pressure. Collapse the pocket. Make Love move his feet and throw before he’s ready.
Because if the Bears don’t get home, this game has the potential to turn into a full-blown shootout, and that’s exactly the kind of track Green Bay would love to drag Chicago into on Saturday night.
Bears OLine vs GB Defensive Front:
This season, as stated earlier, Green Bay is just 3-2-1 when allowing more than 100 rushing yards, compared to 6-2 when it keeps opponents under that mark. That split tells the story.
Chicago’s duo- and inside-zone–heavy rushing attack is well-positioned to take advantage of Green Bay’s absences up front. If the Bears establish the run and pound the rock, it opens everything—forcing the Packers to crowd the box and setting up shots over the top.
🔮The Prediction:
A rivalry older than the league itself takes center stage in Week 16, and this one carries real weight. Records don’t matter in this rivalry. Momentum doesn’t matter. History does, and history says chaos is always on the menu. For Chicago, the mission is clear: protect home field, strengthen playoff positioning, and prove this season isn’t a fluke! For Green Bay, it’s about pride, survival, and playing for their playoff lives. Throw out the standings! Buckle up!
Because when it’s the Bears vs. Packers in December, it’s not just another game for the division. IT'S THE GAME!!
I can’t ignore the matchup advantage for the Bears offense. Chicago ranks fourth in rush offense DVOA, while Green Bay sits 14th in rush defense - a gap that matters in this rivalry.
In Week 14, the Bears leaned on the pass early and still found success running the ball straight down Green Bay’s throat with some second-half adjustments. This week, I expect the script to flip - the run should come first.
Instead of using the pass to set up the run, Chicago can let the run game set up the pass, forcing the Packers to commit extra bodies to the box and opening up space downfield. If the Bears stay patient and physical, they can dictate terms rather than react, and that’s how you take control of this rivalry game. I believe they will run Green Bay right out of Chicago.
In this rivalry, physicality wins first. Chicago should be able to control the line of scrimmage, and Green Bay will be left trying to play catch-up.
The Bears take this one, and full control on the North!!
🐻Bears 28 🧀Green Bay 24
