Week 15 Preview

The Chicago Bears return home looking to rebound after a tough loss in Green Bay last week. Waiting for them on the lakefront: The Cleveland Browns. This is your week 15 preview. 🐻⬇️

When/Where:

📅 Sunday, December 14th

🕔 Noon

📍Solider Field, Chicago, IL 

💰 Odds:

Bears -7.5 -425

Cleveland +7.5 +330

O/U 38.5

❄️Weather:

They are predicting freezing temps. With a wind chill of -20 to -25 for the Bears game Sunday. 

The coldest game ever at Soldier Field was December 22, 2008 against the Packers. The temperature was 3 degrees with a -13 Wind Chill. Bears won 20-17

🧸Our Bears:

The Bears return to Soldier Field following a difficult loss in Green Bay, but the offensive performance, particularly from Caleb Williams, offered meaningful indicators of progress. While Williams’ final line (19-of-35, 186 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) wasn’t statistically explosive, his ability to generate scoring drives against a top-tier defense points towards continued development under the new staff. The late interception was costly, but it was more a product of an aggressive Ben Johnson play call and a timing miss than a misread. The concept was there, half a tick quicker and with a more decisive lead on the route, it might’ve been the possible game-tying strike. They say there are no moral victories in the NFL, and I agree, but I still walked away very encouraged with our Bears.

Week 15 introduces an entirely different set of variables: an incoming polar vortex and a Cleveland defense built on pressure rate, single-gap disruption, and physicality along the front. Extreme cold and winds will likely suppress passing efficiency, elevating the importance of pre-snap clarity, ball security, and controlled game scripts.

Weather-adjusted game theory points squarely toward run-game volume. ( I'd like to see 40+ rushes) With D’Andre Swift at 837 rushing yards and Kyle Monangai adding 648, Chicago brings a complementary rushing profile. Swift’s perimeter acceleration paired with Monangai’s downhill power and short-area efficiency. With the frigid temperature and wind conditions this combination meshes well with Chicago’s duo- and inside-zone-heavy approach. It’s also notable that Cleveland’s front just surrendered 25 carries for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns to Tony Pollard in Week 14, exposing vulnerabilities when disciplined gap-control teams force them to defend downhill for four quarters.

Of course, the central individual challenge remains the “man-beast” himself, Myles Garrett. Fortunately for Chicago, its offensive line has quietly established itself as one of the league’s premier pass-protection units. They allowed just one sack to Green Bay’s pressure-heavy front and currently rank top-three in both pass-block win rate and PFF’s pass-blocking grades. The task is immense! Garrett’s pass-rush win rate and pressure-to-sack conversion remain elite. Given Chicago’s recent performance and the likely run-heavy script, projecting Garrett to finish with one sack is a defensible expectation.

The Browns:
Cleveland enters Week 15 looking to halt a two-game slide and correct the broader trend of dropping four of its last five. The recent issues have been a blend of inconsistent offensive efficiency and a defensive unit that has struggled to close out games.

In last week’s 31–29 loss to Tennessee, Shedeur Sanders posted 364 yards on 23-of-42 passing with three touchdowns and one interception. While the production was solid in volume, the overall passing efficiency continues to lag; Sanders sits at 769 yards on the season, and Cleveland’s aerial attack has yet to generate consistent explosive plays or sustain drives. Sanders, whose completion rate drops below 42% against man coverage. will be forced to attack tighter throwing windows against a Bears secondary that thrives on disrupting timing and generating takeaways.

The strength of the Browns’ offense remains in the backfield. Quinshon Judkins has been a stabilizing force, accumulating 784 rushing yards and providing reliability between the tackles. In the passing game, tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as Sanders’ most dependable target, recording 619 yards and functioning as both a chain mover and an intermediate-zone mismatch. Veteran wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has contributed 497 yards, but Cleveland still lacks a true vertical threat capable of stretching defenses and creating spacing underneath. A big loss on the offensive side is Browns C Ethan Pocic tore his Achilles and is out for the season, per coach Kevin Stefanski.

Ethan Pocic has only given up two sacks and 14 quarterback pressures all season for the Browns.

Defensively, this unit has regressed over the past month. The Browns have surrendered an average of 23.4 points per game across their last five contests, with breakdowns in gap integrity and coverage consistency showing up repeatedly. Their inability to generate timely stops has placed even more pressure on an already up-and-down offense. The Browns' defense is missing pieces, with Ward injured ( status unclear) and DT Maliek Collins is out.

As they head to Soldier Field to face Chicago, the Browns are looking not just to pull off a road upset but to re-establish identity on both sides of the ball. However, given the current trends and the Bears’ strengths in the trenches and secondary, Cleveland will need one of its cleaner performances of the season to get back on track.

Key Matchups:

The obvious storyline: the Bears’ offensive line vs. Myles Garrett and that Browns defensive front. 

Garrett comes in with a league-leading 31 tackles for loss and 20 sacks — a nightmare assignment for any team.

And it’s not just him: the Browns have eight other defenders with 6+ TFLs, making this one of the deepest, most disruptive fronts in the league.

For Chicago, the O-line has to win at the point of attack and establish the run early,  especially in the frigid conditions expected on Sunday.

LBs and Safeties vs Fanin:

We’ve talked about this all season — the Bears’ struggles against tight ends. And this week, they have to deal with Harold Fannin Jr.

Last week alone, Fannin put up 8 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown, with 56 yards after the catch. When Sanders targets Fannin this season: 119.1 passer rating +0.37 EPA per target The Bears will have to contain him.

🔮The Prediction:

This is a matchup I see Chicago clearly holding the upper hand over a Cleveland team that has struggled to find its footing all season. The Bears are in a critical stretch as they try to keep pace with the Packers, and the urgency they bring into Week 15 stands in stark contrast to a Browns squad that has dropped four of its last five.

Cleveland’s offense has talent, but the pieces haven’t come together consistently. Quinshon Judkins is a solid runner, yet the Browns’ offensive line is banged up, limiting their effectiveness and putting even more pressure on rookie Shedeur Sanders. Hopefully that’s a problem against a Bears defense that can thrive if it can generate interior disruption. If Chicago can create any level of pressure, especially up the middle, they’re in position to force Sanders into multiple turnover-worthy throws, particularly given his sub-42% completion rate against man coverage.

One wrinkle worth noting: former Bears draft pick Teven Jenkins is set to start at right guard for the injured Wyatt Teller, marking his return to Soldier Field. While Jenkins is a capable player, the lack of cohesion on Cleveland’s offensive line could be exploited by Chicago’s interior rush packages.

Offensively, the Bears should be able to control this game from the opening drive. Expect Chicago to get the ground game rolling downhill early, lean into the conditions, and dictate tempo. In a polar vortex environment, the formula is straightforward: run the ball, avoid mistakes, and shorten the game. If executed cleanly, that’s a script the Bears can dominate.

Given the weather and Cleveland’s offensive/defensive inconsistencies, I expect a low-scoring contest. I like the Bears to cover in week 15.

Prediction: Bears 21, Browns 9