Week 17 Preview
The Bears enter Week 17 riding momentum and tightening their grip on the NFC North after a dramatic home victory over their hated rivals, the Green Bay Packers. That win not only energized the fan base at Soldier Field, but also reinforced Chicago’s growing identity as a tough, resilient team built for meaningful January football. Now, the challenge shifts west. Chicago travels to Santa Clara this week to face the San Francisco 49ers. This is your week 17 preview:
When/Where:
📅Sunday, December 28th
⏰ 7:20
📍Santa Clara, California
💰Odds:
Bears +3 +136
49ers -3 -162
O/U 52.5
The Weather:
Cool, potentially wet conditions, with forecasts pointing to a good chance of rain, temperatures in the 50s, and breezy winds from the SSE.
🐻Our Bears:
After thrilling the fans with last week’s dramatic victory over the Green Bay Packers, another major test awaits the Chicago Bears as they travel to Santa Clara to face a physical, battle-tested opponent that thrives at home. It’s a classic clash of styles. The Bears’ confidence is growing, but this matchup poses a different challenge; the 49ers are a team built on discipline, speed, and punishing play on both sides of the ball.
For Chicago, this matchup is about proving their recent success extends beyond the NFC North. A road win in a hostile environment would send another powerful message to the rest of the conference as the playoff picture begins to come into focus.
Santa Clara has historically been a nightmare for the Bears. The San Francisco 49ers hold a commanding edge at home, leading the all-time series in San Francisco 23–14, while outscoring Chicago 962 to 633. Even more concerning, the Bears are just 2–10 in their last 10 meetings with the 49ers in Santa Clara.
That trend continued last season, when San Francisco dominated Chicago in a 38–13 blowout. The 49ers controlled the game from start to finish, holding the Bears to just 162 total yards. George Kittle was unstoppable, hauling in six catches for 151 yards, while Brock Purdy delivered a near-flawless performance, completing 20 of 25 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns.
History, numbers, and recent results all favor San Francisco — and that’s exactly what makes this Week 17 matchup such a critical measuring stick for the Bears.
For Chicago, offensive success is contingent on establishing the run to activate play-action concepts. Without consistent rushing efficiency, the offense becomes predictable and allows Shanahan’s defense to dictate terms. Ben Johnson must match Kyle Shanahan schematically; both rely heavily on pre-snap disguise, motion, and play-action sequencing. Losing that chess match will quickly tilt the game.
Defensively it's simple: win at the point of attack, try to slow CMC and make Purdy uncomfortable. You can turn them over with 20 giveaways on the year, with a minus 4 differential.
The 49ers:
Brock Purdy is playing at an elite level, efficiently operating within the structure of the offense and consistently capitalizing on defensive mistakes. George Kittle’s injury is worth monitoring, this could meaningfully impact San Francisco’s overall offensive efficiency. Christian McCaffrey remains the engine of the offense and is quietly building a legitimate Offensive Player of the Year case based on his usage, versatility, and situational importance. San Francisco’s passing game ranks fifth, while its rushing offense sits 24th.
Even so, the 49ers continue to be one of the league’s most efficient teams. They haven’t punted since November, and although they rank near the bottom in forced turnovers, they make up for it with fundamentally sound, disciplined defense. That style could allow Caleb Williams some opportunities through the air, but only if the Bears can stay on schedule.
With the 49ers still very much alive in the division race, urgency won’t be an issue. Expect them to empty the tank on Sunday night. They need to have this one.
Robert Saleh and Kyle Shanahan also deserve recognition, as both could factor into Coach of the Year or Assistant Coach of the Year discussions given the circumstances they’ve navigated in 2025.
🔑Key Matchups:
Our D vs CMC
McCaffrey is back and leading the league in forced missed tackles. He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, but an impressive 9.2 yards per touch in the passing game. He’s lethal everywhere on the field, and the straw that stirs the drink.
Caleb vs SF Defense:
Total Yards Allowed: Around 18th (332.2 YPG).
EPA per Play: 26th they struggle in critical moments.
Third-Down Conversion Rate: 24th they struggle to get off the field.
This Defense can be had. The Bears offense must take advantage.
Key Stat:
The 49ers rank last in the league in sacks and have the second-worst pressure rate overall. San Francisco also blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the NFL, sending extra rushers on just 17.7 percent of defensive snaps.
🔮The Prediction:
Both Chicago and San Francisco enter this matchup at 11–4. The Bears sit atop the NFC North, while the 49ers trail Seattle by one game in the NFC West. For San Francisco, this feels close to a must-win. If the Bears can go into their longtime house of horrors and come away with a victory, it would set up a pivotal scenario: the 49ers would still have Seattle at home, creating a path for Chicago to potentially reclaim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Both teams remain alive in the race for the NFC’s top seed, and the loser of this game is likely on the outside looking in.
Both squads are red-hot. The 49ers enter on a five-game winning streak, while the Bears have won seven of their last eight. Everything about this matchup points to a tight, primetime showdown with major playoff-seeding implications. San Francisco may have a slight edge on paper, but Chicago has the firepower and momentum to pull off an upset if they execute late.
Brock Purdy is one of just three active quarterbacks currently in a playoff position who has already led a team to a Super Bowl, and his presence alone makes the 49ers a dangerous opponent.
On the other side, the Bears are still ranked 16th in total DVOA, and when you remove takeaways from the equation, their defense grades out in the bottom 10 across most metrics.
Offensively, these teams are nearly identical. San Francisco averages 26.1 points per game, just ahead of Chicago’s 25.8. With both defenses struggling at times to get off the field, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout.
As noted, the 49ers have the fewest sacks in the league and the second-worst pressure rate, which should allow Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense to operate at a high level. Two explosive offenses, playoff stakes on the line, and a national stage, even if history hasn’t been kind to Chicago visiting San Fran, this version of the Bears is different. They didn’t have Ben Jesus or Caleb “The Iceman” Williams before.
I’ll take the Bears in the upset.
🐻Bears 34 49ers 31
