Week 12 Preview
The Bears return home to take on the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers, and they’re bringing some serious momentum with them. Chicago has won seven of their last eight games, each one seemingly requiring a defibrillator, but results are results and they’re finding ways to finish. This is your week 12 preview.
When/Where:
📅 Sunday, November 23rd
🕔 Noon
📍Solider Field, Chicago, IL
💰 Odds:
Bears -2.5 -148
Steelers +3 +124
O/U 48.5
ML Steelers +125
🧸Our Bears:
The Bears sit atop the NFC North at 7–3 and yes, it’s real. Last week’s win in Minnesota was massive, and Chicago continues to take care of business as the season builds toward its stretch run. With a victory on Sunday and a Rams loss, the Bears would head to Philadelphia with a legitimate shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Caleb Williams and the first-place Bears now turn their attention to a Steelers defense that has quietly become one of the league’s most vulnerable through the air, allowing an NFL-high 261.7 passing yards per game. Pittsburgh did hold Joe Flacco under 200 yards last week, but replicating that performance against Williams and Chicago’s increasingly dynamic passing attack will be a far tougher test.
Williams is coming off arguably his roughest outing of the season in Minnesota, completing just 16 of 32 passes for 193 yards. Still, the rookie protected the ball, avoided interceptions, and delivered timely plays in crucial moments to help seal the victory.
Home-field advantage could play a significant role in Sunday’s matchup. The Bears have been strong in Chicago, posting a 3–1 record at home along with a 4–2 mark on the road. The Steelers, meanwhile, sit at 2–2 away from home. With both teams comfortable in their own environments, this game may come down to which side manages the moment more effectively.
Defensively, Chicago’s first task will be slowing down Pittsburgh’s physical, downhill rushing attack. The Bears must control the line of scrimmage, force the Steelers into early passing downs, and rally quickly on outside zone and toss plays. If Chicago can limit the Steelers’ chunk gains on the ground, Pittsburgh’s offense becomes significantly more predictable.
The Steelers also thrive on explosive plays off play-action, an essential part of their vertical passing game. For the Bears, disciplined safety play and tight communication on the back end will be crucial. Chicago can’t afford lapses in coverage or easy yards — especially against a team eager to take deep shots whenever the opportunity presents itself.
The Steelers:
The Steelers haven’t exactly been road warriors in recent weeks. After notching early-season victories over the Jets and Patriots in September, Pittsburgh has struggled away from home, dropping consecutive road games in Cincinnati and Los Angeles — including a 25–10 loss to the Chargers despite entering that matchup as only three-point underdogs.
Chicago’s upcoming showdown with Pittsburgh also reintroduces a familiar storyline: Aaron Rodgers. The veteran quarterback owns a staggering 24–5 record against the Bears, piling up nearly 7,000 passing yards and 64 touchdowns in those meetings. He hasn’t lost to Chicago since 2018, though he also hasn’t faced the Bears since leaving that team up north after the 2022 season.
Pittsburgh is coming off a dominant 34–12 win over the Bengals, a game in which its defense stole the show by scoring twice. However, the victory came at a cost. Rodgers exited with a left wrist injury, and the team views the setback as significant. His availability for Week 12 in Chicago remains in doubt.
In Rodgers’ absence, Mason Rudolph stepped in and delivered an efficient performance, completing 12 of 16 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown good for a 118.5 passer rating. Rudolph brings experience with 18 career starts and provides steady, if unspectacular, play. Still, the engine of Pittsburgh’s offense is its ground game. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell anchor a physical backfield that defines the Steelers’ identity. Warren’s injury status now looms large and will be something to monitor as Sunday approaches.
On defense, the Steelers present a mixed statistical profile. Against the run, they rank 20th in yards per carry allowed and 24th in Expected Points Added (EPA). Yet, somewhat surprisingly, they’ve been highly effective against traditional running backs, leading the NFL in both rushing yards allowed per game and yards per attempt to the position.
The real vulnerability lies in the secondary. Pittsburgh ranks 32nd in the NFL against the pass, surrendering 261 passing yards per game — the highest mark in the league. That weakness will be heavily tested against Caleb Williams and Chicago’s improving aerial attack.
💪Key Matchups
Rome vs the Steelers Secondary
Rome Odunze has played four defenses that run man coverage at a top-10 rate this season: 22 rec, 360 Rec YDs 3TDs
Steelers 5th most man coverage, and are dead last in PPR/game allowed to WRs.
Bears O Line vs Steelers pressure:
Handling T.J. Watt and the pressure front
Pittsburgh’s defense thrives on disruption and chaos. T.J. Watt alone can wreck a game plan but he's not alone.
Pittsburgh has 4 players with at least 10 quarterback hits: Watt 16, Herbig 16, Benton 10, Highsmith 10.
Bears LBs/Safeties vs Steelers TE:
The Bears have struggled at times this season against tight ends, and Pittsburgh loves to utilize them. Washington is a beast and Freiermuth is just so dependable. Bears have allowed on 77 Targets 64 Rec 9.1 YPC 584 Yds allowed and 4 Tuddies.
🔮 The Prediction:
Historically, the matchup has leaned heavily in Chicago’s favor. The Steelers are just 8-19-1 all-time against the Bears and an astonishing 1-12 at Soldier Field, a venue that has consistently given Pittsburgh trouble.
Offensively, Chicago has shown the ability to put points on the board while taking exceptional care of the football. The Bears enter Sunday with just six total giveaways on the season, one of the lowest marks in the league. That ball security will be critical against a Steelers defense that thrives on forcing turnovers and creating chaos. If Chicago can maintain its clean-play identity, it should be able to sustain drives and control the tempo.
On the other side, the Bears’ pass rush has an opportunity to finally deliver a breakout performance. Pittsburgh has allowed 32 sacks, the third-most in the NFL an average of 3.3 per game. While the Steelers have tightened things up recently with just one sack allowed last week, they still surrendered 10 sacks over the previous four games. Chicago must capitalize on this vulnerability and generate consistent pressure.
Sunday’s matchup projects as a tight, physical, low-possession battle, exactly the kind of game Chicago has been winning throughout its ascent in the NFC North. If the Bears protect the football and manage the Steelers’ defensive pressure, they’ll have a strong chance to ride their home momentum to another close victory.
And in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ final appearance in Chicago, the Bears send him off with a loss.
Final Score: Bears 27, Steelers 24
