Week 13 Preview
The Chicago Bears head to the City of Brotherly Love for a Black Friday tilt against NFC East leading PhiladelphiaEagles, and they’re bringing some serious momentum on the road with them. Chicago has now won eight of their last nine games, and if you're watching, yes, a defibrillator is required weekly! This is an elite NFC matchup and your week 13 preview.
When/Where:
📅 Friday, November 28th
🕔 2 P.M.
📍Lincoln Financial Field,
Philadelphia, PA
💰 Odds:
Bears +7 ML+280
Eagles -3 -325
O/U 44.5
🧸Our Bears:
Through 12 weeks, the Bears have surged to an impressive 8–3 record, sitting atop the division and holding the NFC’s No. 3 seed. Their offense has evolved into one of the league’s most dynamic units, top five in total yards per game and top three in rushing. It’s the kind of balanced, resilient football that has Chicago looking like a legitimate postseason contender.
Caleb Williams wasn’t at his sharpest as a passer on Sunday, but he came through when the Bears needed him most. Despite a 19-for-35 outing, he produced 239 yards, three touchdowns, and, perhaps most impressively, logged his fourth straight game without an interception. His decisiveness and timing against Pittsburgh were clear steps forward, and they’ll need to carry over into a tough matchup with an Eagles defense that’s allowing the eighth-fewest points per game, ranks eighth in EPA per play, eighth in defensive DVOA, and seventh in PFF’s defensive grading.
Still, the matchup isn’t without its challenges. Williams has completed just 59.2% of his passes this season, ranking 19th in adjusted EPA per play and 25th in success rate. His production also shows a stark split: he’s been elite against man coverage, third in the league, but drops to 21st vs zone. That’s a concern against a Philadelphia defense that plays zone more than anything else, setting up a demanding test for the Bears’ second-year quarterback and head coach Ben Johnson.
The run game may be the key to easing that burden. Philadelphia’s run defense has been vulnerable for much of the year, 19th in the NFL at 114.1 yards allowed per game, but has tightened noticeably since Nakobe Dean’s return, holding opponents under 85 rushing yards in recent contests. For Chicago, the duo of Monangai and Swift will be crucial in setting the tone early and taking pressure off No. 18.
Defensively, while the defense continues to set the tone, leading the NFL in takeaways and holding opponents to the 13th-fewest passing yards. The Bears continue to deliver. They once again imposed their will last week, grinding out a massive win in brutal circumstances. The unit stood tall amid injuries and adversity, finding a way when they desperately needed one. And help appears to be on the way, with Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson expected back in the lineup, an important boost for both the secondary and Dennis Allen’s defense as the schedule stiffens.
🦅 The Eagles:
The Philadelphia Eagles enter this matchup atop the NFC East at 8–3, looking to rebound from last week’s collapse in which they surrendered 24 unanswered points to Dallas in a stunning Week 12 defeat. That setback briefly overshadowed what had been back-to-back dominant defensive outings, holding both the Packers and Lions to single digits. I would expect Philadelphia’s defense at home to return to that elite form on Friday and challenge our Bears at all 3 levels.
Offensively, however, the Eagles are still searching for consistency—especially on the ground. They sit just 25th in total offense at 300.1 yards per game, ranking 23rd in passing (193.2), 21st in rushing (110.5), and 17th in scoring at 23.2 points per contest. The advanced numbers tell the same story: Philadelphia is 17th in EPA per drive and dead last in three-and-out rate, a clear indicator of their struggles to sustain drives and maintain efficiency.
Chicago’s defense presents its own set of problems. Entering Week 13, the Bears have allowed the sixth-most points and the third-most yards per game, while sitting 26th in defensive DVOA. That leaves them facing a high-pressure test against an Eagles offense desperate to spark itself back to life.
Let’s not get it twisted, slowing down Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley will be no easy task, even if the Bears’ defense is a bit healthier this week. The Eagles’ playmakers are versatile and explosive, and any lapse in coverage or tackling could quickly turn the game in Philadelphia’s favor.
Defensively, the Eagles may not appear as dominant as last season on paper, but don’t be fooled—this unit can still deliver. They rank 17th in total defense, 19th against the run, and 15th versus the pass, while sitting eighth in scoring defense at just 20.1 points allowed per game.
💪Key Matchups:
Caleb vs Philly Zone:
As stated earlier, Caleb has been elite against man coverage, third in the league, but drops to 21st vs zone. Big test for 18 and Ben.
Bears Front vs Barkley:
The Bears rank 25th in the NFL, giving up 133.3 rushing yards per game. Barkle is itching to break out. He's had just one 100-yard game and only three over 80 yards this season. The Bears must find a way to contain him, or he could turn this game into a big-play showcase.
Bears LBs/Safeties vs Dallas Goedert:
Like the Steelers did last week, Dallas Goedert is a matchup nightmare for the Bears. Last week The Steelers had 8 targets, they hauled in all 8 for 62 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Chicago has struggled against tight ends, allowing 85 targets, 72 receptions, 646 yards (9 YPC), and 5 touchdowns. Goedert is a major cog in this Eagles offense, averaging 10 YPC with 7 touchdowns on the year. If Philadelphia can exploit this weakness, they almost certainly will, making him a key weapon to watch.
🔮The Prediction:
The Eagles have been dominant at Lincoln Financial Field on Fridays, covering the spread in nine of their last 12 home games and winning 15 of 16 straight-up. Jalen Hurts has been especially impressive at home, holding a perfect 19-0 SU record against teams above .500 at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia’s offense has done a great job avoiding turnovers, while Chicago’s defense relies heavily on creating them.
This season, the Bears are just 1-3 when forcing one or fewer turnovers. Without those takeaways, Chicago’s defense struggles—ranked 31st in defensive EPA per play on non-turnover plays.
The Eagles did have a hiccup last Sunday with two turnovers, but overall they’ve been careful with the ball this season, having only four turnovers heading into Week 12.
On the offensive side for Chicago, the Bears are 6-0 when scoring 25 or more points, while Philadelphia is allowing roughly 20 PPG. Another advantage for the Eagles: Jalen Hurts thrives against man coverage. He trails only Jared Goff in DVOA against man coverage, a scheme Chicago runs at a top-10 rate. Caleb Williams has also historically performed better against man than zone coverage.
While the Bears are riding a winning streak under their new head coach, Friday will mark their first matchup against a top-10 DVOA defense since Week 2, when they fell 52-21 to Detroit. Despite Chicago’s momentum, the metrics heavily favor Philadelphia.
I'm sorry Bears Nation. I hope to be wrong here. I Expect a competitive game, but in the end, the reigning champs likely pull through.
This marks the 2nd time I've picked against the Bears.. Week 2 vs Detroit was the other!
🦅 Philadelphia 27 – 🐻 Chicago 23
