Week 11 Preview
The Chicago Bears head to Minnesota for a huge divisional matchup against the Vikings! The Bears are carrying some momentum north after a couple of come-from-behind wins, and Caleb Williams is starting to come into his own.
Can the Bears keep it rolling and steal a big divisional win on the road? This is your week 11 preview!
When/Where:
📅 Sunday, November 16th
🕔 Noon
📍U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
💰 Odds:
Bears +3 -118
Vikings -3 -102
O/U 48.5
ML Bears +130
Vikings have a 51.8% chance to beat Bears on Sunday
The Bears a 47.8% shot at winning the NFL Week 11 game
🧸 Our Bears:
The Chicago Bears opened the season with a 17–6 home lead against the Minnesota Vikings before rookie J.J. McCarthy rallied Minnesota to a 27–24 win in his first NFL start. Since then, Chicago’s defense has taken a hit due to injuries, but Caleb Williams has emerged as a late-game force, leading the league in both game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks.
After an 0–2 start, Williams and the Bears have won six of their last seven games. While the second-year quarterback hasn’t been perfect, he continues to show top-tier potential. He now faces one of his toughest tests: a Vikings defense that has been elite at home, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 46.3 QBR and just 9.72 yards per completion—both the second-lowest marks in the NFL. A win in Minnesota would go a long way in solidifying Williams as the real deal.
Recent history isn’t on Chicago’s side. The Vikings have won nine of the last 10 matchups, including all three meetings since the Bears’ 12–10 win in 2023. Their first meeting this season produced 51 total points, and Minnesota has allowed at least 24 points in each of its last four games.
Defensively, Chicago will again be shorthanded. T.J. Edwards remains out, and Jaquan Brisker—after missing all week of practice—may also be unavailable. Tremaine Edmunds leads the unit with 80 tackles, while Kevin Byard III anchors the secondary with four interceptions. For the Bears to pull this one out, their defensive strengths must continue to show: they rank fifth in third-down defense, second in passer rating allowed, and third in takeaways.
A major key will be containing Aaron Jones. Chicago must stay disciplined in its gap assignments and prevent Jones from taking over the game.
The Queens:
The Vikings have been inconsistent this season and have struggled at home, holding just a 1–3 record at U.S. Bank Stadium. After an early-season surge, Minnesota has now dropped four of its last six games, falling to 4–5. Their brief momentum from an upset win in Detroit two weeks ago faded quickly, as the team came back down to earth last week. Still, the defense turned in a strong performance, limiting Lamar Jackson to just 176 passing yards and one touchdown while forcing Baltimore to settle for four field goals before the Ravens finally broke through in the second half.
J.J. McCarthy is coming off a challenging outing in which he completed 20 of 42 passes for 248 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions for a passer rating of 54.5. He added 48 rushing yards on five attempts and was sacked once.
On the ground, Jordan Mason leads Minnesota’s rushing attack with 444 yards and four touchdowns on 102 carries. Justin Jefferson remains the focal point of the passing game, totaling 51 receptions for 686 yards and two scores.
Defensively, Eric Wilson leads the unit with 63 tackles, while Joshua Metellus has recorded two interceptions. Jalen Redmond has provided interior pressure with 4.0 sacks, complementing veteran Javon Hargrave on the defensive line.
The Vikings’ pass defense has been a relative strength, ranking 16th in the league. However, the run defense has been a notable weakness, sitting 21st in EPA per play and 18th in yards allowed per game (117.7), while giving up 4.2 yards per carry.
💥Key Matchups:
Bears front 7 vs Aaron Jones:
Jones is fully back as Minnesota’s lead back. He saw 71% of snaps, 75% of opportunities, and both goal-line carries last week. In 16 career games against the Bears, running back Aaron Jones has amassed 927 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on 195 carries. He averages (4.8) yards per rush attempt added 33 Rec for 372 Rec Yds 11 YPC and 4TDs
💪Caleb vs Vikings D:
Vikings are holding opposing quarterbacks to a 46.3 QBR and 9.72 yards per completion, both second lowest in the league.
🔮 The Prediction:
The Chicago Bears jumped out to a 17–6 lead against Minnesota in the season opener before their defense fell apart late, allowing the Vikings to steal a comeback win. Now Chicago enters the rematch banged up and thin on defense, yet Dennis Allen has consistently managed to dial up timely stops and create big plays from his injury-depleted unit.
Minnesota’s biggest issue has been its tendency to start fast and fade hard. The Vikings are averaging just 8.7 points per second half over their last three games—a pattern that repeatedly allows opponents back into contests. They may jump on Chicago early again, but their inability to sustain drives or adjust offensively leaves the door wide open.
The Bears were held to only 16 points in Baltimore last month, but that was the lone time since Week 2 they failed to score at least 24. Chicago brings the more reliable, balanced offense into this matchup. Caleb Williams protects the football, D’Andre Swift delivers timely production on the ground, and Rome Odunze continues to be a dependable red-zone target. Minnesota leans heavily on Justin Jefferson’s big-play ability, but Chicago’s recent defensive playmaking and knack for forcing turnovers shapes the matchup in their favor. The Bears should be able to dictate the line of scrimmage, and limit the Vikings’ offensive possessions.
I expect Chicago’s run game will get rolling, and the Bears will grind out long drives and tilt the game to their tempo.
Red zone efficiency is still the Bear's achilles heel and after limiting the Ravens last week to four 1st half field goals.
I still believe, in the end, the “magic man” does it again!
Williams, already known for his fourth-quarter poise, engineers another late-game drive, this time earning his payback against Minnesota.
Prediction: Bears 23, Vikings 20
