Week 9 Preview
Both the Chicago Bears and Cincinnati Bengals are looking to bounce back after tough losses as they meet in Week 9 at Paycor Stadium. Each team enters the matchup searching for consistency in a season that has already seen its share of ups and downs. This is your week 9 preview.
When/Where:
📅 Sunday, November 2nd
🕔 Noon
📍Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
🌤Weather: upper 50s to low 60s and a near-zero chance of precipitation. Winds will be light and variable at 5-10 mph.
💰The Odds:
Bears - 2.5 (-110)
Bears: - 148 ML
Bengals + 2.5 (-110)
Bengals: +124 ML
Total
51 (Over -110/Under -110)
🧸Our Bears:
The Bears enter Week 9 with a 4–3 record, looking to regain momentum after a tough loss to the Ravens. Despite the setback, Chicago’s offense showed promise, averaging 6.0 yards per play and racking up 372 total yards in Week 8. However, their inability to finish drives proved costly, settling for three field goals on four red-zone trips instead of touchdowns. Improving quarterback efficiency and red-zone execution will be crucial as they take on a Bengals defense that’s been susceptible to big plays all season.
Cincinnati’s defense has been one of the league’s weakest, allowing the most points per game while ranking 30th in PFF defensive grade and 32nd in defensive DVOA. That presents a prime opportunity for Chicago’s offensive playmakers to capitalize and put points on the board.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears’ defense will look to contain a Bengals offense that’s been inconsistent and prone to turnovers. The quarterback situation adds further uncertainty for Cincinnati if Joe Flacco isn’t healthy, backup Jake Browning could be in line to start. Browning has struggled to get the ball to key targets like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, which could also limit running back Chase Brown’s recent resurgence. If that’s the case, Chicago could be in position to seize control and get back on track.
Defensively, the Bears added C.J. Gardner-Johnson to handle slot duties in Kyler Gordon’s absence. It’s a tough assignment for anyone, as the Bengals’ wide receiver group ranks among the best in the league. Chicago will need to stay disciplined in their gap assignments to slow down running back Chase Brown and do everything possible to contain Cincinnati’s explosive receivers.
After generating only three pressures last week, the Bears must find ways to create more disruption up front. Getting to the quarterback and forcing quicker decisions will be critical to preventing big plays and keeping this dangerous passing attack in check..
The Bengals:
At 3–5, the Bengals are fighting to keep their season alive and desperately need a win to stay in playoff contention. Their offense has struggled to find consistency, ranking near the bottom of the league in most if not all defensive categories.
Cincinnati has had just as many issues surrendering explosive plays and failing to protect leads, including blowing a 14-point advantage in last week’s loss to the Jets.
This week again at home, the Bengals will look to regroup and find balance on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Joe Flacco and star receiver Ja’Marr Chase have been a bright spot, connecting for 38 receptions on 54 targets for 346 yards and two touchdowns over the past three games.
The offensive line also turned out a strong showing against New York, allowing just six pressures on 36 dropbacks and earning a 91.7 PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating fifth-best of the week. However, the unit still ranks 30th overall this season, and its ability to hold up against Chicago’s front seven will be a deciding factor in this matchup.
Statistically, the Bengals remain a bottom-five team in the NFL, ranking 29th in overall DVOA and 31st in net yards per play. The defense has been especially porous, allowing the most points per game, 407.9 total yards per contest, and 256.0 passing yards per game both near the bottom of the league.
This presents a major opportunity for the Bears’ passing attack to get going on Sunday. As mentioned by Kyle Duplacey on the Bearly There Podcast, tight end Loveland/Kmet should be a key factor, as opposing tight ends have found plenty of success against this struggling Cincinnati defense.
Key Matchups:
Bears passing game vs. Bengals secondary:
Chicago’s receivers should have opportunities against a defense that’s allowed one of the highest yards-per-pass averages in the league.
Bengals run game vs. Bears front seven:
If Cincinnati can establish some success on the ground, it could open up their passing attack and help control the tempo.
🔮The Prediction:
Quarterback play and red-zone efficiency will be pivotal as Chicago takes on a Bengals defense that’s been highly vulnerable to big plays. The Bears have shown they can be a complete team during their recent four-game winning streak, they ranked seventh in defensive DVOA, allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play, and gave up just 19 points per game.
Chicago enters this matchup as a slight road favorite, and their more balanced offense combined with disciplined defensive play could give them the upper hand. Still, Cincinnati’s home-field advantage and desperation to stay alive in the playoff race should keep this one tight.
Both offenses have plenty of firepower, but the analytics favor Chicago. If Joe Flacco starts for the Bengals, expect a high-scoring battle one the Bears are built to edge out.
Prediction: Bears 31, Bengals 28 w/Flacco
Bears 31 Bengals 13 with Browning
Pick: Bears -2.5
