Can the Cubs Hold the Line? 26 Games in 26 Days Will Tell the Story
By Shawn Lugo
As the first 60 days of the 2025 MLB season wrap up, the Chicago Cubs find themselves in an enviable position: 37–22, sitting atop the National League Central with a four-game lead. It’s been a torrid start, but as we turn the page to June, the real test begins.
The Cubs now enter what could be the most grueling stretch of their season: 26 games in 26 days, beginning with a nine-game road trip to Washington, Detroit, and Philadelphia. These aren’t just any games—they come at a time when the dog days of summer start separating contenders from pretenders.
Offense? No Problem.
Let’s start with the good news. Offensively, the Cubs are among the league’s elite. Through June 1st:
Batting Average (.261) – 2nd
On-Base Percentage (.335) – 3rd
Slugging (.447) – 3rd
OPS (.782) – 3rd
wRC+ (120) – 3rd
Home Runs (79) – 5th
Runs (334) – 2nd
RBI (326) – 2nd
Stolen Bases (74) – 3rd
This isn’t a fluke, this is a full-blown offensive identity. The emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong as a legitimate spark plug, alongside Kyle “King Tuck” Tucker and a healthy, impactful Seiya Suzuki, has turned the top of the order into a nightmare for opposing pitchers.
And don’t overlook Nico Hoerner, currently leading the MLB in batting average with runners in scoring position (.312). That’s not just timely hitting, that’s winning baseball.
But Can the Pitching Hold Up?
The looming concern, and it’s one we’ve had since Spring Training, is the starting rotation. While the Cubs have managed to win games with offense and timely bullpen work, the rotation has shown signs of regression.
While the Cubs' offense continues to drive headlines, the real story over the next month may be what’s happening on the mound. The Cubs have leaned on surprising performances from unexpected places early in the year, but the numbers are beginning to hint at some troubling regression.
Colin Rea provided stability in April and early May, giving the Cubs innings when they desperately needed them. But, that early success is starting to fade. Rea has been roughed up lately, surrendering 12 runs on 17 hits in just 10 ⅔ innings over his last two starts. The sharpness simply isn’t there and hitters are adjusting.
Then there’s Ben Brown, perhaps the biggest wild card in the rotation. His raw stuff is undeniable, but he’s struggled to command it consistently, often running up pitch counts and laboring to get through even four or five innings. He’s been a puzzle that the Cubs haven’t solved yet.
Matthew Boyd has been nothing short of solid this year, but has only pitched over a hundred and thirty innings, three times in his eleven year career..
One of the few anchors has been Jameson Taillon, who quietly has become the rotation’s most reliable arm. He’s delivered quality starts in 6 of his last 7 outings, keeping games competitive and taking pressure off the bullpen.
But the most exciting development? Cade Horton.
The rookie phenom has taken the league by storm. Electric stuff, poise beyond his years, and a fearless approach on the mound. It’s easy to see why fans and analysts alike are excited. However, there's a looming concern: Horton has never pitched a full professional season. His minor league workload was carefully managed, and the Cubs will have to make decisions about how far—and how deep—they can push him this summer.
And then there's the elephant in the room: team ERA. The Cubs' 5.06 ERA ranks 27th in MLB in May. That stat doesn’t lie. Despite strong individual outings and stretches, the collective performance of the pitching staff took a serious dip in May. Are there cracks forming? I'm not 100%, but the numbers in May are starting to reflect that.
What to Watch Over the Next Month
Here’s what will determine if the Cubs can maintain their NL Central lead into July:
1. Pitch Efficiency: Can starters go deeper into games with minimal blowups?
2. Bullpen Management: Is there enough backend reliability to carry high-leverage innings every night?
3. Health: Can the core offensive group stay intact through this travel-heavy stretch?
4. Schedule Pressure: Trips to Philly and Detroit won’t be easy. How they come out of this 9-game road swing could set the tone. Ahead of 3 at Home vs Red Hot Brewers and 4 in St. Lou. Vs the Dead Birds.
The Verdict (For Now)
Right now, the Cubs look like a playoff team. But, being a good June team doesn’t always translate into being an October team. But, the emergence of the bullpen leading in about every category since April 19th and the return of Shota should continue to keep this Cubs train on track.
Their offense can carry them through stretches, but not indefinitely. The pitching will have to meet the moment if they want to hold off the Brewers or Cardinals as the summer heat rises.
The next 26 days? They’re not just a test, they’re a preview of whether this team has the depth and resilience to last through 162.
